COP30 in Belem, Brazil: What's Next After COP31?

 

Climate change roadmap for COP31

What’s Next After COP30? Roadmaps, Loopholes, and the Countdown to COP31

COP30 in Belém, Brazil, concluded with a mix of ambitious narratives, partial breakthroughs, and unresolved tensions. Many hailed the Amazonian venue as historic, noting the unprecedented presence of Indigenous leaders, youth groups, and frontline communities. Others left frustrated, citing the lack of a fossil-fuel phase-out, voluntary rather than binding forest protection commitments, and slow movement on climate finance reform (Climate Action Network, 2025).

As the world turns toward COP31, to be hosted in Turkey, the question is simple: What comes next? What must governments, civil-society groups, youth, Indigenous peoples, financial institutions, and the private sector focus on over the next year to turn COP30’s partial gains into meaningful action?

This article explores the major post-COP30 priorities, identifies gaps and loopholes requiring urgent attention, and outlines what must happen before COP31 to keep climate goals alive.

1. The Fossil-Fuel Question: The Missing Roadmap

The most glaring gap at COP30 was the failure to adopt a binding roadmap to phase out fossil fuels. Earlier in the negotiations, draft texts had included references to “transitioning away from fossil fuels,” but these were removed in the final hours amid opposition from major producers (Reuters, 2025).

Why This Matters

• The IPCC warns that meeting the 1.5°C goal requires rapid reductions in fossil-fuel use (IPCC, 2022).
• Without a fossil-fuel phase-out plan, national mitigation pledges may fall short.
• Fossil-fuel expansion in several countries—offshore drilling, coal investments, and gas field expansions—continues to undermine progress.

What Needs to Happen Before COP31

• A coalition of ambitious countries—including small island states and vulnerable nations—must drive new diplomatic momentum.
• Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) due in 2025 must include explicit pathways for reducing fossil-fuel emissions.
• Civil society, youth, and Indigenous groups should continue pressuring governments to adopt fossil-fuel exit strategies.

2. Adaptation Finance: Turning a Promise into Reality

One of COP30’s most celebrated outcomes was the pledge to triple adaptation finance by 2035 (UNEP, 2023). But pledges alone do not protect communities from droughts, floods, food insecurity, heatwaves, or displacement.

The Challenge

Adaptation finance today is heavily under-resourced; developing countries face an adaptation gap of US$194–366 billion annually (UNEP, 2023). Even tripling current flows is not enough.

What Must Happen Before COP31

• Countries must define what counts as “adaptation finance,” avoiding double-counting and rebranding of development aid.
• Multilateral development banks (MDBs) should publish clear strategies for scaling adaptation-focused lending and grants.
• Mechanisms must be established for direct access to communities, youth groups, and Indigenous organizations.
• A transparency platform should be launched to track progress every quarter until COP31.

If adaptation finance does not move quickly, millions remain vulnerable to escalating climate risks.

3. Forests & the TFFF: From Launch to Implementation

The Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) was announced at COP30 with significant political momentum and early pledges (World Resources Institute, 2025). The facility promises long-term, results-based payments to countries and Indigenous communities for keeping forests standing.

Gaps and Risks

• Early commitments (around US$6.6 billion) fall far short of the US$125 billion ambition (Health Policy Watch, 2025).
• Metrics for measuring “forest conservation” remain inconsistent.
• Indigenous groups warn that without strong safeguards, forest finance could bypass communities.

What Must Happen Before COP31

• A detailed governance structure must be finalized.
• Clear metrics (baselines, MRV rules, deforestation thresholds) must be established.
• Funding must scale up significantly—both public and private sectors must increase commitments.
• Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities (IPLCs) must occupy decision-making seats within the facility.

Without proper governance, the TFFF risks becoming just another well-intentioned mechanism that struggles to deliver real forest protection.

4. Carbon Markets & Border Adjustments: Integrity Over Politics

COP30 saw Brazil introduce an initiative for global carbon-market integration and initiated debate on border carbon adjustments (BCAs) (Carbon Pulse, 2025). While promising, these instruments carry risks.

Key Integrity Concerns

• Double-counting of emissions reductions
• Low-quality carbon credits
• Use of BCAs as protectionist trade measures
• Lack of equity safeguards for developing countries (Times of India, 2025)

What Must Happen Before COP31

• Finalize the architecture of the “Open Coalition for Compliance Carbon Markets.”
• Establish safeguards to prevent inequitable burden on developing countries.
• Publish a roadmap for how carbon markets will support—not undermine—global mitigation.
• Link carbon-market revenue to just-transition funds and adaptation needs.
• If carbon-market reforms stall, the global system risks fragmentation and loss of credibility.

5. Indigenous and Youth Participation: Beyond Symbolism

COP30 achieved record Indigenous and youth presence, but structural power imbalances remain (Cultural Survival, 2025).

Gaps Not Addressed at COP30

• Indigenous leaders were not included in key negotiation rooms.
• Youth delegates were primarily confined to side events.
• No formal mechanisms were created for Indigenous or youth co-governance.
• Financial access barriers remain incredibly high.

What Must Happen Before COP31

• Countries should include Indigenous and youth negotiators in national delegations.
• UNFCCC should create a “Permanent Youth Negotiation Body” and an “Indigenous Co-Governance Council.”
• Funding windows for IPLC- and youth-led climate action must be expanded.
• Adaptation and forest finance mechanisms must earmark direct financing for local actors.

Representation without power is not climate justice.

6. The Mitigation Ambition Gap: Revising NDCs for 2025

Under the Paris Agreement, countries must submit updated NDCs in 2025. COP31 will be the closing chapter for this cycle.

Current Reality

A UN analysis suggests that current NDCs put the world on track for 2.4–2.8°C of warming (UNFCCC, 2023).

What Must Happen Before COP31

• Countries must integrate sectoral roadmaps: energy, transport, industry, agriculture, and land use.
• Fossil-fuel expansion plans must be aligned with global climate goals.
• Mitigation commitments must include methane, industrial emissions, and forest degradation.
• Countries should commit to peak emissions before 2030.

COP31 will be the last significant opportunity to alter the trajectory toward 2030.

7. Loss and Damage: Operationalization Needed

COP27 and COP28 laid the foundations for the Loss and Damage Fund, but COP30 made limited progress (UNFCCC, 2025).

What Must Happen Before COP31

• Clear grant-based financing commitments from high-income countries
• A simplified access mechanism for vulnerable countries
• A financing plan with annual targets
• Integration of non-economic losses (culture, identity, heritage)

Communities already experiencing irreversible climate impacts cannot afford more delays.

Conclusion: COP31 Must Be the “Delivery COP”

COP30 energized global climate justice, highlighted strengths in adaptation and forest finance, and raised the visibility of Indigenous and youth actors. But it exposed significant gaps: weak mitigation ambition, lack of a fossil-fuel phase-out, insufficient finance, voluntary commitments, and structural inequities in representation.

As the countdown to COP31 begins, the global climate community stands at a crossroads. The next conference must:

• Transform pledges into implementation
• Convert symbolic representation into shared governance
• Close loopholes in markets and finance
• Align NDCs with a 1.5°C pathway
• Guarantee that climate justice is not a slogan, but a lived reality

COP31 will determine whether COP30 becomes a launching pad for fundamental transformation—or another moment of unrealized potential. The world cannot afford another year of delay.

References

Carbon Pulse. (2025). COP30: Market reforms and global integration discussions.
Climate Action Network. (2025). Post-COP30 civil society reflections.
Cultural Survival. (2025). Indigenous responses to COP30 outcomes.
Health Policy Watch. (2025). TFFF financing analysis.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2022). Sixth Assessment Report.
Rainforest Foundation. (2023). Forest rights and global climate governance.
Reuters. (2025). COP30 negotiations and fossil-fuel debate.
Times of India. (2025). Developing countries challenge BCA fairness.
United Nations Environment Programme. (2023). Adaptation Gap Report.
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. (2023, 2025). Synthesis reports and COP30 outcome summaries.
World Resources Institute. (2025). TFFF launches and climate finance updates.