Climate change projects for carbon emissions mitigation Carbon projects: baseline gaming and benefit-sharing opacity Nature-based carbon projects (e.g., REDD+ and voluntary offset schemes) can strengthen financing for forests—if their numbers are credible and if communities share in the benefits. A growing empirical record reveals systemic weaknesses in baselines, leakage, permanence, and safeguards, resulting in over-credited projects that deliver minimal real climate benefits (West et al., 2024; Berkeley Carbon Trading/Carbon Market Watch; The Guardian/Reuters, 2024–2025). Two recurring integrity gaps: Baselines and additionality. “Elastic methodologies” allow developers to set inflated deforestation baselines, so that mere continuation of the status quo yields large credits (CMW, 2023; West et al., 2024). Benefit-sharing and land rights. Where tenure is contested or community voice is weak, revenue distribution becomes opaque, fueling conflict and undermining stewardship (CI...
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