Adapt or Perish in Climate Change: The Evidence of a Changing Climate

 The Evidence and Impacts of a Changing Climate

Climate change impacts include extreme weather events

The evidence of a changing climate is apparent worldwide, as extreme weather events, rising sea levels, shifting precipitation patterns, and ecosystem disruptions. These occurrences are not isolated because they are interconnected symptoms of a broader climate crisis. This section explores these key indicators, offering detailed examples and the scientific foundation needed to understand their origins and implications.

Extreme Weather Events

Extreme weather events, including hurricanes, heatwaves, droughts, and floods, as direct impacts of climate change, are occurring with more rapid frequency and intensity. The rising temperatures in both the atmosphere and oceans play a significant role in increasing the severity and unpredictability of these events.

Heatwaves

Heatwaves are characterized as extended periods of extremely high temperatures. It is more frequent during dry and summer seasons and ranks as one of the most dangerous weather phenomena. Over the past century, their occurrence and severity have escalated dramatically, with record highs reported across Europe, North America, and Asia (World Meteorological Organization [WMO], 2022). One record-breaking event is the historic heatwave in the Pacific Northwest in 2021, raising the temperatures in Canada to 49.6°C (NOAA, 2022). These occurrences are closely associated with human-driven warming.

Hurricanes and Cyclones

Increased ocean temperatures provide additional energy for tropical cyclones, heightening their intensity and destructiveness. For example, Hurricane Harvey in 2017 released more than 60 inches of rain in parts of Texas, resulting in catastrophic flooding that incurred approximately $125 billion in damages (NASA, 2023). Additionally, the warmer ocean temperatures fuel storm intensity and increase the duration of cyclones, prolonging the threat to coastal communities. To mitigate and adapt to such challenging changes, it is vital to reduce the impacts, such as investing in resilient infrastructure and improving early warning systems.

Floods and Droughts

A couple of major impacts of climate change are floods and droughts. Climate change alters precipitation patterns, causing more intense rainfall in some areas while causing prolonged dry spells in others. According to the report, in 2022, Pakistan experienced unusual monsoon rains that inundated one-third of the nation and affected 33 million people (UNEP, 2022). On the other side of the globe, the regions in Sub-Saharan Africa are grappling with food shortages and displacement due to the ongoing droughts.

Rising Sea Levels

The rising sea levels are one of the most visible consequences of global warming. These phenomena are driven by two primary factors: the thermal expansion of seawater and the melting of ice from glaciers and ice sheets. 

These rising sea levels are a significant effect of global warming, caused mainly by the warming of ocean water and the melting of glaciers and polar ice. As the Earth's atmospheric temperature increases, ocean water expands, which accounts for about one-third of the observed rise in sea levels (IPCC, 2021).

At the same time, glaciers worldwide are shrinking, and large ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are losing considerable amounts of ice. Aside from other huge areas covered with ice, Greenland alone lost an average of 286 billion tons of ice annually from 1993 to 2021, making it a major contributor to global sea-level rise (NASA, 2023).

Rising sea levels threaten coastal cities, small island nations, and low-lying areas. Locations such as Miami, Venice, and Jakarta already witness more frequent flooding during high tides. In the Maldives, rising waters surrounding this island nation are alarming; if current trends continue, the islands will likely submerge by the end of the century (WMO, 2022).

Changes in Precipitation Patterns

Climate change is practically altering the normal global precipitation patterns. Such circumstances increase the rainfall cycles in already wetter regions and, unfortunately, worsen the dry seasons in already arid areas. These changing patterns pose challenges to farming communities, water management systems, traditional settlement areas, and disaster preparedness.

Heavier rainfall has become more common, as a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, resulting in more intense and frequent downpours. Such extreme weather can overwhelm existing infrastructure, trigger landslides, and increase the risk of flash flooding, particularly in urban areas. In contrast, arid and semi-arid regions are seeing reduced precipitation, which exacerbates drought conditions and threatens water availability for drinking, agriculture, and industry. For instance, the Horn of Africa is experiencing one of its most severe droughts in decades, putting over 20 million people at risk of extreme hunger (World Food Programme [WFP], 2022).

Moreover, these changes disrupt normal farming activities, seriously reducing the amount of produce and negatively affecting farmers' livelihood and economic circumstances. With these changing precipitation patterns, monsoon rains are increasingly erratic, decreasing crop yields and thus threatening food security for millions of people, including animals, in South Asia. For example, a study found that rice yields could decrease by as much as 10% for every 1°C rise in temperature, while erratic rainfall could further reduce yields by up to 25% in certain regions (Lobell et al., 2011). This dual impact seriously threatens food security in vulnerable areas such as South Asia.

1.3.4 Ecosystem Disruptions

The Earth's ecosystems are undergoing various forms of alterations. The ecosystems are negatively affecting biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human well-being. This disruption results in many species facing extinction, and vital living resources like clean air, water, and food security are increasingly threatened, jeopardizing the health of human populations worldwide.

Coral Reefs (70% bleaching)

Known as the "rainforests of the sea," coral reefs are highly vulnerable to temperature fluctuations. Rising ocean temperatures have led to widespread coral bleaching, a process in which corals expel the algae that provide them with color and essential nutrients. Notably, the Great Barrier Reef has experienced four mass bleaching events since 2016, posing a serious threat to the survival of one of the planet's most biodiverse ecosystems (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018).

Recent estimates suggest that approximately 70% of the world's coral reefs have experienced bleaching over the past few decades, with significant occurrences linked to elevated sea temperatures. According to a study published by Hughes et al. (2017), about 30% of the world's coral reefs have been lost since the 1970s, and predictions indicate that without substantial intervention, an additional 30% could be lost within the next few decades.

Shifting Biomes

Climate change is prompting species to migrate to higher altitudes and latitudes in search of more suitable habitats. For instance, boreal forests advance northward into tundra regions, while tropical species encroach into temperate zones (Parmesan & Yohe, 2003). These ecological shifts disrupt existing balances and place additional stress on native species.

For example, studies have shown an upward shift in the distribution of various species, particularly in mountainous regions. Mountain plants have been observed shifting their range upward by several meters each decade. At the same time, bird species, such as the yellow-bellied Siskin, have shown similar patterns of movement towards higher elevations. According to a study by Lenoir et al. (2008), many plant species in the European Alps have moved upward by an average of 29 meters per decade.

Loss of Biodiversity (1 million species)

The Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) reports that approximately one (1) million species are at risk of extinction due to climate change and human activities (IPBES, 2019). The decline of pollinators especially threatens food security by diminishing agricultural yields, especially in countries and regions already experiencing food shortages. In addition, habitat loss caused by humans through deforestation and urbanization significantly contributes to biodiversity loss, disrupting ecosystems and their services.

1.3.5 The Human Impact

The changing climate is not merely an environmental issue; it carries many unpredictable and far-reaching negative consequences, particularly for human societies.

Health Impacts (250,000 deaths/annum)

Heatwaves are resulting in a rise in heat-related illnesses and fatalities, particularly affecting vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and people with pre-existing health conditions (WHO, 2022).

Additionally, the rising temperatures and continually shifting precipitation patterns are spreading vector-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue, and Lyme disease. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that climate change's direct and indirect health impacts could result in approximately 250,000 additional deaths annually between 2030 and 2050, primarily due to heat exposure, malnutrition, malaria, and diarrhea (WHO, 2021).

Furthermore, a study published in Environmental Research Letters indicated that heat-related illnesses could increase by 30% by 2050 in many regions (Mastrorillo et al., 2016). Additionally, vector-borne diseases are projected to expand, with a potential increase in the population at risk of malaria reaching up to 10% due to changing climate conditions (Béguin et al., 2018).

Economic Costs ($165 billion)

The economic effects of climate change are daunting. In 2022, the United States faced 22 weather disasters, each causing over a billion dollars in damages, including hurricanes, floods, and wildfires, with total damages surpassing $165 billion (NOAA, 2023). Globally, if decisive action is not taken, climate-related disasters could reduce GDP by as much as 18% by 2050 (Swiss Re Institute, 2021).

Displacement and Migration (216 million people)

Rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and resource scarcity are compelling millions to abandon their homes. By 2050, the World Bank predicted that climate change could displace as many as 216 million people globally (World Bank, 2021). This mass migration raises serious social and political challenges, particularly in fragile regions and developing and island nations that lack the capacity to face the impacts of climate change.

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